Copy/Paste Math
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# Hypergeometric draw reliability
X ~ Hypergeometric(N,K,n)
P(X>=1) = 1 - C(N-K,n)/C(N,n)
P(X>=k) = Σ_{j=k..min(K,n)} C(K,j) C(N-K,n-j) / C(N,n)
E[X] = nK/N
# Basics-only turn model (on the play)
# By turn 3: n=9 cards seen
P(WW by T3) = Σ_{k_pl,k_for} [k_pl+k_for>=3 AND k_pl>=2] *
C(Plains,k_pl) C(Forest,k_for) C(Other, 9-k_pl-k_for) / C(N,9)
P(Drizzt on-curve by T3) = Σ_{k_d,k_pl,k_for} [k_d>=1 AND k_pl+k_for>=3 AND k_pl>=1 AND k_for>=1] *
C(Drizzt,k_d) C(Plains,k_pl) C(Forest,k_for) C(Other, 9-k_d-k_pl-k_for) / C(N,9)
P(Paladin T1) = Σ_{k_p,k_pl} [k_p>=1 AND k_pl>=1] *
C(Paladin,k_p) C(Plains,k_pl) C(Other, 7-k_p-k_pl) / C(N,7)
# Mercy Freeze as scheduled drain (asset framing)
Drain(L, r) = (1 - r) * L
# L = lands in play when Mercy resolves
# r = fraction of lands left untapped (unused mana) that turn
3rd-order Resource Tensor
A[mode, turn, state] where state ∈ {Spend, Hold, FreezeDrain}. It encodes posture.
Spend: develop. Hold: represent. FreezeDrain: exposure after Mercy.
A[Mode, Turn, State] (fractions)
| Mode | Turn | Spend | Hold | FreezeDrain |
|---|
Tune per matchup, keep the method.
Freeze as intimidation math
Mercy turns tempo debt into a social signal: “I can skip an untap and still win.” That forces opponents into anxious overreaction lines.